Navy vs. UAB prediction, odds, time: Week 4 college football Friday picks by proven model — SkimNews
Get the Sports newsletter
Daily sports — scores, transfers, the storylines from the leagues you actually follow. Free.
- UAB Blazers (1-2) host Navy Midshipmen (1-1) at 7 p.m. ET Friday at Protective Stadium in Birmingham, Ala., marking UAB's AAC conference opener
- Navy is a 6.5-point road favorite with the over/under set at 51.5 points, though Midshipmen quarterback Braxton Woodson is questionable after hurting his ankle in a 38-30 loss to FAU
- UAB head coach Alex Mortensen notched his first win as full-time head coach in Week 2 against UL Monroe, following road losses to Illinois and Louisiana, and now leans on quarterback Ryder Burton — a BYU and West Virginia transfer — for stability under center
- Navy's offense has shifted to a spread-option hybrid rather than a pure triple-option, a change the model cites as evidence the team can move the ball quickly, with Navy having gone Over in both games this season
- The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every FBS game 10,000 times and is on a 22-19 run on top-rated college football picks, projects the two teams to combine for 54 points, making the Over (51.5) the value play in 53% of simulations
Why it matters: With Woodson's status uncertain, the 6.5-point spread becomes harder to handicap: bettors backing Navy take on injury risk, while Over backers have two teams that have both shown offensive ceiling (Navy scored 23 second-half points vs. FAU; UAB put up 23 at Illinois). The model's track record — 22-19 on top-rated CFB picks — makes its spread and money-line call the actionable piece of the story for bettors, not just the total.
Ask SkimNews
