A lack of rockets is creating a crisis for space technology companies — SkimNews
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- SpaceX is sunsetting Falcon 9, which logged 165 launches in 2025—five times more than every other US rocket combined—and is reportedly no longer taking bookings beyond 2028 as it transitions to Starship.
- Lead times for a launch have stretched from roughly 12 months to 30-36 months, putting many space-tech startups at risk, according to NewOrbit CEO Anatolii Papulov, who called booking a 2028 slot "very hard."
- Starship, SpaceX's successor vehicle, reached orbit for the first time on 28 September, but its side-dispensing design is optimized for flat Starlink satellites, leaving uncertainty over whether it can deploy bulkier third-party payloads.
- The war in Ukraine ended Russian Soyuz as a commercial launch option; pre-2022, Russian rockets handled about a fifth of global launch capacity, including many commercial missions.
- Closest US rival Rocket Lab flew 18 Electron rockets in 2025 but has yet to launch its larger Neutron, while Blue Origin's New Glenn remains grounded after a May explosion; Europe's Ariane and India's PSLV launch only a few times a year.
- Amazon's 2022 order of 83 launches for its Amazon Leo constellation—only 14 of which have flown—absorbs further capacity, and US regulations bar American and most European satellites from launching on Chinese rockets.
- Starlink generated $11.4 billion in revenue in 2025, nearly two-thirds of SpaceX's total, incentivizing the company to prioritize its own constellation and planned orbital AI data-centre satellites over third-party rideshares.
Why it matters: With wait times tripling from 12 to 30-36 months, small satellite startups booked or hoping to fly on Falcon 9 have few alternatives before 2029: Starship's Starlink-optimized dispenser may not accommodate their payloads, New Glenn is grounded, Neutron hasn't flown, and Chinese rockets are off-limits to US hardware. SpaceX's own Starlink and Amazon's 83-launch Amazon Leo commitment already soak up remaining slots.
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