CFP Bubble Watch: Florida On The Edge After Missouri Loss — SkimNews
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- Alabama ranks No. 1 in total efficiency per ESPN Analytics and faces Georgia on Saturday in a matchup to determine the biggest challenger to Texas in the SEC; Texas holds the No. 1 spot thanks to wins over Ohio State and at Tennessee.
- Miami has a 93.2% chance to reach the playoff per the Allstate Playoff Predictor, ranking No. 2 nationally in points per game (49.6) and No. 1 in opponents' points per game (9.8).
- Pitt lost starting quarterback Mason Heintschel to a torn ACL, clouding the Panthers' 27.9% playoff chances; backup Holden Geriner will try to carry them to the ACC title.
- Florida sits on the bubble after losing to Missouri, kept alive by their head-to-head win over Ole Miss but needing to beat Texas or Georgia to stay alive.
- Over 12 years of the CFP, 34 teams have qualified with a loss and 10 with two losses (all in the 12-team format), with Clemson (2024) and Alabama (2025) the only three-loss playoff teams.
- Boise State has the best chance of any Group of 6 contender at 35.2% to reach the playoff per the Allstate Playoff Predictor, boosted by Oregon's loss to Oklahoma State.
Why it matters: With the 12-team CFP format, a single loss rarely eliminates a contender — 34 of the 64 teams that have qualified across the format's history entered with at least one loss. That reality makes every Florida, Oregon, and Texas Tech game down the stretch a referendum on résumé-building rather than survival, and the committee's handling of bubble teams like a banged-up Pitt (lost starting QB to torn ACL) or a one-loss Oregon could reshape seeding as much as the contenders themselves.
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