Alabama vs. Florida State prediction, odds, time: Week 3 college football picks by proven model — SkimNews
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- Alabama is a 19.5-point home favorite over Florida State at 3:30 p.m. ET Saturday at Bryant-Denny Stadium, a rematch of last year's 31-17 loss in Tallahassee.
- Florida State fell 27-24 to SMU as a 3-point underdog last week, while Alabama rallied past Kentucky 45-17 after trailing at halftime.
- Alabama ranks among the nation's stingiest defenses at 185.5 yards allowed per game, and coach Kalen DeBoer has settled on Keelon Russell at quarterback after two comfortable wins.
- The SportsLine Projection Model, on a 33-21 run on top-rated CFB money-line picks since 2024, projects the Over (48.5) clears in 53% of 10,000 simulations, averaging 50 combined points.
- The model projects Russell at 249 passing yards and two touchdowns, while FSU QB Ashton Daniels goes for 219 yards and 1.3 TDs, with Duce Robinson catching 6.7 passes for 86 yards.
Why it matters: Alabama laying 19.5 points at home after losing 31-17 to FSU last year is the story — the book is pricing in a dominant Crimson Tide rebound behind the nation's stingiest pass defense (185.5 yards per game) and a settled Russell-at-quarterback situation. FSU's two games have stayed Under by a combined 3.5 points, leaving bettors weighing whether the Seminoles can keep the total low again or whether Alabama's offense replicates last week's 45-point outburst.
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