Lula's Brazil Win Keeps China in the Minerals Game — SkimNews
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- Lula won Brazil's runoff with 51.76 percent of valid votes, a margin of roughly 4.3 million ballots and an unprecedented fourth term, after trailing Flavio Bolsonaro 45 to 47 in the October 4 first round.
- Flavio Bolsonaro met Trump in the Oval Office on May 26, 2026, asking Washington to postpone tariffs after a fresh 25 percent levy was proposed June 2; 52 percent of Brazilians read the tariffs as campaign help that hurt the economy, and after losing he secretly flew to the U.S. via Argentina, fearing money-laundering charges.
- China took 10.9 percent of its worldwide outbound investment in Brazil in 2025, the single largest destination, with a South American FDI stock of $85.5 billion across 355 projects since 2007; bilateral trade hit a record $171 billion in 2025 and China bought nearly 80 percent of Brazil's soybean exports — a presence a Flavio government beholden to Washington would have faced intense pressure to slow with the new screening law in hand.
- BYD began production at the former Ford complex in Camaçari, Bahia, as Chinese automotive investment in Brazil rose 66 percent to $965 million; Geely's alliance with Renault do Brasil targets local output in Paraná this year, and BYD has held lithium rights in Minas Gerais since 2023.
- Law 15.506/2026, signed by Lula on September 16, created Brazil's first National Policy on Critical and Strategic Minerals and a CIMCE council that must vet changes of control in mining companies and international supply deals; it offers up to 7 billion reais in support and 1 billion reais a year in tax credits from 2030 to 2034 for processing on Brazilian soil.
- USA Rare Earth paid $2.8 billion for the Serra Verde Mining Complex in April 2026 — Brazil's only commercial rare-earth producer — with $565 million in direct U.S. government financing, while three Chinese state-owned enterprises spent more than $1.2 billion on Brazilian copper, nickel, niobium and lithium mines in 2024-2025; China still controls roughly 90 percent of rare-earth processing and magnet manufacturing.
- Trump backed a run of conservative wins — Rodrigo Paz in Bolivia, José Antonio Kast in Chile, Nasry Asfura in Honduras, Abelardo de la Espriella in Colombia and Keiko Fujimori in Peru — but Brazil and Mexico will both be governed by center-left leaders until 2030 who refuse to pick a side between Washington and Beijing.
Why it matters: The new minerals law tests Washington's regional strategy: its $2.8 billion Serra Verde purchase carries $565 million in U.S. financing, yet the same law rewards local processing, the capability Chinese firms already supply through BYD's Bahia plant. With China taking 80 percent of Brazil's soybean exports, Lula's win leaves Beijing's $85.5 billion FDI footprint intact.
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