Lula Wins Brazil Presidency, Secures Leverage in U.S.-China Rivalry — SkimNews
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- Lula won Brazil's presidential runoff with 51.76% of the vote, defeating Flavio Bolsonaro by about 4.3 million ballots after trailing in early post-election polls.
- Brazil passed Law 15.506/2026, creating a National Policy on Critical and Strategic Minerals and a presidential council (CIMCE) to regulate foreign control and supply agreements in the sector.
- China became Brazil’s top destination for Chinese outbound investment in 2025, absorbing $6.1 billion—45% growth—while accounting for nearly two-thirds of China’s FDI in South America since 2007.
- U.S. imposed up to 50% tariffs on Brazilian goods in 2025 and proposed a 25% increase in 2026, actions widely seen in Brazil as interference favoring Flavio Bolsonaro’s campaign.
- Flavio Bolsonaro fled to the United States via Argentina after his defeat, amid fears of prosecution over alleged ties to money laundering schemes.
- BYD, Great Wall Motors, and Geely expanded EV production in Brazil, with Chinese firms holding lithium, nickel, and rare earth rights and leveraging established manufacturing partnerships.
Why it matters: Lula’s victory preserves Brazil’s non-aligned stance, allowing it to leverage U.S. and Chinese investment in critical minerals and EVs; with $85.5 billion in Chinese FDI stock and new screening powers, Brazil can now extract greater value from foreign investors while resisting pressure to pick sides in the U.S.-China rivalry.
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