Israel Election Pivots on Haredi Military Conscription — SkimNews
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- Israel's Haredi community is projected to reach nearly 1 in 4 Israelis by 2050 with a 6.5 fertility rate, while the IDF warns of a 12,000-soldier shortfall and roughly 80,000 eligible Haredi men aged 18-24 have not enlisted.
- Israel's Supreme Court ruled in June 2024 that blanket military exemptions for yeshiva students could no longer be sustained without a legal basis, triggering a political crisis.
- Shas and United Torah Judaism withdrew from Netanyahu's coalition in 2025 over the conscription fight, and in September the High Court annulled legislation meant to block arrests of Haredi draft evaders as violating the principle of equality.
- The IDF told the attorney general's office that more than 150 Haredi men attempted to fly abroad in the previous month alone to evade the draft, and officers attempting to arrest a Haredi man in Modiin ultimately left without making the arrest.
- Gadi Eisenkot, Netanyahu's main challenger and a former IDF chief of staff whose son was killed in Gaza, has proposed universal service encompassing both Haredim and Arab citizens of Israel.
- Naftali Bennett has drawn a red line against forming a government dependent on ultra-Orthodox parties unless they shift on conscription, saying "October 7 changed everything, because we need those soldiers."
- Rabbi Yehoshua Pfeffer said there is "a lot of mistrust toward the IDF among Haredim" over exposure to mixed-gender environments, calling for more military frameworks that allow ultra-Orthodox men to maintain their religious practices.
Why it matters: With roughly 80,000 eligible Haredi men unenlisted and a 12,000-soldier IDF shortfall, the election outcome determines whether Shas and UTJ return to a Netanyahu coalition preserving exemptions, or whether challengers like Eisenkot and Bennett impose conscription — reshaping both Israel's military capacity and the coalition math that governs the country.
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