Auburn vs. Tulsa NIT Final: Odds, Spread, Model Pick
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- Auburn Tigers face the Tulsa Golden Hurricane in the 2026 NIT Championship Game on Sunday at 8 p.m. ET from Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, with Auburn a 6.5-point favorite, the over/under at 159.5, and Auburn -264 on the money line.
- Tulsa (30-7) is seeking its third NIT title after wins in 1981 and 2001, while Auburn (21-16) is going for its first; Auburn advanced with an 88-66 semifinal rout of Illinois State and Tulsa edged New Mexico 74-69.
- SportsLine's projection model — which entered the Final Four on an 11-1 run on top-rated over/under college basketball picks — simulated Tulsa vs. Auburn 10,000 times and is taking the Over (159.5), projecting 162 combined points and hitting in 53.1% of sims.
- Both teams rank far better on offense than defense: Tulsa is 16th nationally in scoring (85.1 ppg) but 157th in scoring defense (73.2 allowed), while Auburn is 40th in scoring (82.8 ppg) but 309th in points allowed (78.6).
- The Over has connected at a 65.7% clip for Tulsa this season (23-12, the second-highest total among Division I teams) and Auburn's over sits at 21-16, reinforcing the over lean.
- The model says one side of the spread hits almost 60% of the time, though that specific pick is gated behind SportsLine's subscription; the game airs on ESPN2.
Why it matters: Both defenses rank in the bottom third of Division I (Auburn 309th, Tulsa 157th in points allowed), so the model sees a track-meet, projecting 162 combined points against a 159.5 total. With Auburn a heavy -264 moneyline favorite, the spread and total — not the outright winner — are where the real betting value sits for Sunday's 8 p.m. ET tip from Indianapolis.
