North Texas vs. Tulsa prediction, odds, time: Week 5 college football Thursday picks by proven model — SkimNews
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- SportsLine Projection Model simulated the North Texas-Tulsa matchup 10,000 times, projecting 54 total points and recommending the Under 56.5 in 57% of simulations.
- Tulsa is a 1.5-point home favorite at Skelly Field at H.A. Chapman Stadium, with the Golden Hurricane 2-0 at home this season and the Under hitting in all four of their games plus each of their last five.
- North Texas (2-2) is 0-2 on the road in 2026 despite winning each of the last three head-to-head matchups against Tulsa.
- Tulsa's running back duo of Damari Alston (45 carries, 213 yards, 4 TDs) and Trequan Jones (29 carries, 196 yards, 2 TDs) anchors the offense, while starting QB Baylor Hayes (knee) is questionable.
- North Texas QB Tayven Jackson is completing 74.2% of his passes for 1,187 yards with 6 TDs and 2 INTs this season.
- The model enters Week 5 on a 34-25 run on top-rated college football picks, returning nearly $600 for $100 players.
Why it matters: With Tulsa favored by just 1.5 points and the model backing the Under 56.5 in 57% of 10,000 simulations, bettors get a tight spread reflecting North Texas's 0-2 road mark against Tulsa's 2-0 home record — a matchup where the Golden Hurricane's defense has produced a perfect 4-0 Under run this season.
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