Western Kentucky vs. New Mexico State prediction, odds: Week 4 college football Thursday picks by proven model — SkimNews
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- Western Kentucky (1-3) visits New Mexico State (1-3) at Aggie Memorial Stadium in Las Cruces, N.M., on Thursday at 8 p.m. ET on CBS Sports Network in the Conference USA opener for both.
- New Mexico State is a 2.5-point home favorite with the over/under at 54.5, per the latest odds; the total opened at 52.5 and has risen five points.
- SportsLine's Projection Model simulated the game 10,000 times and is going Under 57.5 points, calling 55 points the expected total as the rising number has flipped value to the Under.
- Western Kentucky averaged just 11.3 points per game against FBS competition, while New Mexico State averaged 18, with WKU's only win coming against FCS Mercyhurst and a non-conference slate that featured Georgia and Indiana (both top-5 teams).
- SportsLine's model enters Week 5 on a 32-24 run on all top-rated college football picks and a 34-25 run on top-rated CFB picks, returning nearly $600 for $100 players.
Why it matters: For bettors, the model's Under 57.5 play is grounded in the total moving from 52.5 to 54.5 — a five-point shift the projection treats as overcorrected. With WKU averaging just 11.3 points per FBS game and NMSU at 18, the model's 55-point projection reflects limited offensive firepower in a game where both teams beat only FCS competition all season.
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