Western Kentucky vs. New Mexico State betting preview: Odds, picks, predictions for Week 5 college football — SkimNews
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- Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (1-3) visit the New Mexico State Aggies (1-3) for a Conference USA opener on Thursday, Oct. 1 at 8 p.m. ET at Aggie Memorial Stadium, with NMSU favored by 2.5 points and the Over/Under at 57.5.
- The SportsLine Projection Model gives the Aggies a rare "A" grade, winning in 66% of its 10,000 simulations and covering the 2.5-point spread 63% of the time.
- WKU's three defeats came by an average margin of 52 points — a 70-20 loss at Georgia and a 38-0 shutout at Indiana — while New Mexico State's largest loss this season was by 24 points to rival New Mexico.
- Aggies running back James Jones has posted two 100-yard rushing games (355 yards on the season, 6.2 yards per carry) and faces a WKU defense that yields 220.5 rushing yards per game — the worst mark in Conference USA by 30 yards over the next team.
- The SportsLine model enters Week 5 on a 32-24 run on top-rated college football picks, returning nearly $600 for $100 players according to the source.
- DraftKings is offering $150 in bonus bets for a $5+ wager on the matchup, while Hilltoppers QB Rodney Tisdale Jr. threw for 309 yards and four touchdowns against FCS Mercyhurst last week.
Why it matters: Both teams enter at 1-3, but the Aggies' rushing attack — led by James Jones against the worst run defense in Conference USA — and the model's rare top-grade confidence create a stark talent mismatch on the betting line, making this a model-flagged opportunity despite both teams' losing records.
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