Western Kentucky vs. New Mexico State betting preview: Odds, picks, predictions for college football Week 5 — SkimNews
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- SportsLine Projection Model grades New Mexico State an 'A' to win Thursday's game, with the Aggies winning 66% of simulations and covering the 2.5-point spread 63% of the time.
- Western Kentucky (1-3) opens Conference USA play at Aggie Memorial Stadium on Thursday at 8 p.m. ET after three straight losses to start the season — 70-20 at Georgia, 38-0 at Indiana, and a closer defeat — before routing FCS Mercyhurst 52-7.
- New Mexico State (1-3) is a 2.5-point home favorite with the Over/Under set at 55.5, per DraftKings; the Aggies also beat Mercyhurst 51-14 but have losses to Florida State, Hawaii, and rival New Mexico.
- Rodney Tisdale Jr. threw for 309 yards and four touchdowns to 12 different receivers against Mercyhurst, echoing his 301-yard, four-TD performance in WKU's 35-16 road win over NMSU last November, when the Hilltoppers outgained the Aggies 429-178.
- WKU's run defense is the worst in Conference USA at 220.5 rushing yards allowed per game — 30 more than any other team in the 10-team league — setting up James Jones (6.2 yards per carry, 355 rushing yards, two TDs) for a workload.
- The SportsLine model enters Week 5 on a 32-24 run on top-rated college football picks, returning nearly $600 for $100 players through the first four weeks.
Why it matters: Both teams are 1-3 with their only wins against FCS Mercyhurst, but the model sees a real mismatch: WKU's run defense (220.5 yards allowed per game, worst in C-USA) faces an NMSU ground attack averaging 6.2 yards per carry. If the model's 66% win projection holds, the 2.5-point home spread undervalues the gap between a schedule-softened 1-3 team and one that's been competitive in FBS losses.
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