How is the US economy really doing under President Trump? — SkimNews
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- US GDP expanded at a 2.2% annualized rate and is up 3.2% since the end of 2024, outpacing every other G7 economy over that period and beating the IMF's post-tariff downgrade.
- US inflation rose to 3.7% — higher than the 3% rate Trump inherited in January 2025 — with economists attributing the pickup to his tariffs and the Iran war's disruption to Middle East oil and fuel supplies.
- Diesel prices hit a record $6.52 per gallon in September 2026, and grocery staples like beef and coffee have risen since Trump took office, though egg prices have fallen; retailers warn further food inflation is coming from energy costs.
- The Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy estimates the middle fifth of US households are roughly $1,700 worse off in 2026 than they would otherwise have been, while the richest 1% are about $12,560 better off, largely because of Trump's tax cuts.
- US job creation has slowed to an average of 34,000 per month under Trump, compared with 122,000 in Biden's final year; manufacturing employment sits at 12.6 million, slightly below where it stood when Trump returned, though unemployment is steady at 4.2%.
- The federal deficit reached $2 trillion — roughly 6% of GDP — in the year to September 2026 and is projected to exceed 8% by 2030, prompting an IMF warning that excessive US borrowing risks a future financial crisis.
- The 10-year US Treasury yield has climbed above 5%, its highest since the 2007 global financial crisis, pushing the 30-year mortgage rate to 7.4% — up from 6.9% when Trump took office — and deepening the housing affordability crunch.
Why it matters: Trump can claim the strongest G7 growth, yet ITEP estimates middle-class households are roughly $1,700 worse off while the top 1% gained $12,560 from his tax cuts. A 30-year mortgage at 7.4% and a federal deficit projected above 8% of GDP by 2030 deepen the strain on affordability.
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