U.S. payrolls rose 162,000 in August, much more than expected; unemployment rate at 4.1% — SkimNews
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- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported nonfarm payrolls surged by a seasonally adjusted 162,000 in August, nearly triple the 53,000 economists had forecast and the strongest monthly gain since March.
- Federal Reserve traders priced in roughly 60% odds of a quarter-point rate hike at the Sept. 15-16 FOMC meeting after the beat, though policymakers Waller, Williams and Barr said they remain in 'wait-and-see' mode pending next week's CPI and PPI readings.
- President Trump called the report a 'great jobs number' and demanded on social media that the Fed 'must get smart — BE PATRIOTS' and lower rates rather than hike, arguing high rates put the U.S. at an 'unfair disadvantage.'
- Job gains were broad-based but uneven by sector: restaurants and bars led with 59,000 new positions, government education added 42,000 and manufacturing contributed 16,000, while information-related industries shed 23,000 jobs as a possible AI drag.
- Health care hiring slowed to just 13,000 in August, well below the 32,000 monthly average over the prior 12 months, while the labor force participation rate climbed 0.2 percentage points and a broader unemployment measure fell to 7.7%, its lowest since June 2025.
- Prior months were revised sharply higher, with July swinging from a reported loss of 23,000 jobs to a gain of 21,000 and June upgraded by 11,000 to a 31,000 increase, while average hourly earnings rose 0.3% monthly and 3.1% annually.
Why it matters: The August blowout — combined with upward revisions to 80,000 prior-month jobs — pulls forward a genuine hawkish risk for the Fed, whose officials had been leaning toward holding rates steady. With the FOMC not having moved since three late-2025 cuts and inflation still above target for 5½ years, a stronger labor market gives Waller and Barr cover to back a hike if next week's CPI/PPI prints disappoint, putting Trump on a collision course with his own appointee-led central bank.
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