Strait of Hormuz Shut 100 Days, Oil Holds at $87
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- WTO data shows a 95% reduction in crude oil shipments from Arabian Gulf ports and a 99% reduction in LNG carrier traffic, prompting the IEA to call the closure "the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market."
- Brent crude sits at $87.55 per barrel—the lowest since before the conflict began—held down by China's drawdown of roughly 1.3 billion barrels in storage at about 1 million barrels per day, with the US, Brazil, and Canada also filling part of the void.
- President Trump claimed a secret US mission moved 100 million barrels through the blocked strait, but Kpler's Matt Stanley notes that's only five days of normal traffic stretched over more than a month, and the true figure can't be verified due to "dark trade" vessels running without transponders.
- China's oil demand collapsed from 12.5 million barrels per day in December to roughly 7 million barrels per day from May through July, per Kpler.
- Global oil supply fell 10.1 million barrels per day in March, with the UAE's national oil company estimating full Hormuz flows won't resume until 2027 and IEA director Fatih Birol saying recovery from 80+ damaged energy facilities could take up to two years.
- FGE NexantECA's Iman Nasseri warned the buffers will run out by July if the strait remains closed, as stocks approach "operationally critical levels."
- OPEC may need to manage Iraq's aggressive export push if the strait reopens, Kpler's Matt Stanley warned, saying the sudden return of supply puts prices "in danger of getting to $50."
Why it matters: The 100-day closure is the largest oil supply disruption on record, yet prices hold thanks to China's 1.3-billion-barrel reserve drawdown and a demand collapse from 12.5 to 7 million barrels per day. When those buffers exhaust by July, the equation breaks—and a clean reopening could crash Brent to $50 as pent-up output floods back.
