U.S. Adds 57K Jobs; Consumer Confidence Sags
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- U.S. employers added 57,000 jobs in June, down from 129,000 in May, while the unemployment rate ticked down to 4.2%, according to the Labor Department's Thursday report.
- Job openings have spiked since early spring in politically relevant blue-collar sectors including manufacturing and construction, and private-sector job growth is expanding at its strongest clip since Trump returned to the White House.
- Consumer confidence has soured sharply: the Conference Board reported this week that the share of consumers saying it's hard to find a new job is at its highest since before Covid vaccines were widely available, and the quits rate is as low as mid-2020.
- Wage gains have steadily declined since cresting in the first half of the Biden administration, and paychecks have failed to keep up with inflation over the past year as fuel, energy costs, and Trump's tariffs depleted workers' spending power, per Atlanta Fed and BLS data.
- Sixty percent of Americans disapprove of Trump's handling of the economy, according to a recent PBS News/NPR/Marist poll, with Americans saving less and serious credit-card delinquencies ticking higher.
- Goldman Sachs Asset Management's Kay Haigh said there is "a path for the Fed to stay on hold for the rest of the year," noting that cooling job growth could relieve pressure for rate hikes even as oil-price-driven inflation persists.
- White House spokesperson Kush Desai attributed consumer resilience to "President Trump's historic MOU with Iran," which he said would push energy prices lower and boost real wages in coming months.
Why it matters: The split between macro labor strength and household sentiment is a direct political liability for Trump: 60% disapprove of his economic handling, and Atlanta Fed data shows paychecks trailing inflation. Yet slower hiring — 57,000 versus 129,000 — eases pressure on the Fed to hike rates, a quiet reprieve for an administration that has staked its brand on consumer relief.
