College football score predictions for Week 3, 2026: Model backs Florida State (+19.5) against Alabama — SkimNews
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- SportsLine's model projects a final score of Alabama 32, Florida State 18 in Saturday's 3:30 p.m. ET kickoff at Bryant-Denny Stadium, with FSU (+19.5) covering the spread in 66% of 10,000 simulations and the Over (49.5) hitting 53%.
- The Alabama-FSU spread moved five full points from an opener of -15.5 to the current -19.5, even though FSU covered +3.5 in its Week 1 loss to SMU and is coming off a bye after playing in Week 0.
- Alabama handled Kentucky 45-17 last week but trailed at halftime, while Florida State beat Alabama outright in Tallahassee last season — the model cites both as factors in projecting a comfortable cover.
- No. 8 Ole Miss hosts No. 7 LSU in a top-10 matchup Saturday with LSU installed as a 3-point road favorite, as former Rebels coach Lane Kiffin returns to Oxford after bolting before last season's College Football Playoff.
- The model, upgraded for 2026 to better account for the transfer portal, also issued score predictions and best bets for every FBS Week 3 matchup, backing multiple underdogs including one in a top matchup.
- Other notable Week 3 lines include Georgia -24.5 at Arkansas, Michigan State +29.5 at Notre Dame, Florida -2.5 at Auburn and Clemson -3 against North Carolina.
Why it matters: The 19.5-point spread on Alabama-FSU is five points wider than the opener, yet the model still rates FSU as a cover — a split decision that matters to bettors weighing market movement against simulation output, especially with FSU coming off a bye and having won last year's head-to-head outright.
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