CFB Week 3 Odds: Model Backs Michigan State, South Carolina — SkimNews
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- SportsLine's model simulates every FBS game 10,000 times and is on a 33-21 run on top-rated CFB money-line picks since 2024, with a 2026 upgrade that better factors in the transfer portal.
- No. 7 LSU visits No. 8 Ole Miss as a 3-point road favorite in the lone top-10 matchup of Week 3; Lane Kiffin faces his former team and the home squad has won each of the last six meetings in the series.
- LSU quarterback Sam Leavitt has been removed from the injury report for the Ole Miss game after initially being listed as doubtful.
- South Carolina (-4, 58.5) covers at home against Mississippi State in nearly 60% of model simulations, with the Gamecocks having won eight of the last nine meetings behind LaNorris Sellers (270 passing yards, 3 TDs in Week 1; 119 rushing yards, 1 TD in Week 2).
- Michigan State (+29.5, 51.5) stays within the spread at No. 3 Notre Dame in nearly 60% of simulations, with the model projecting a 42-17 final; Notre Dame has beaten Power 4 opponents by 30+ points only twice since the start of last season.
- No. 2 Georgia opens SEC play as a 24.5-point road favorite at Arkansas, while No. 10 Alabama hosts Florida State (-19.5) and No. 25 Virginia hosts West Virginia (-10.5) in non-conference matchups.
Why it matters: Bettors following the 33-21 money-line model now have Week 3 plays including a 29.5-point spread at No. 3 Notre Dame — a number that looks steep given the Irish have beaten Power 4 foes by 30+ only twice since last season. The marquee No. 7 LSU–No. 8 Ole Miss matchup, where Kiffin faces his former team and the home squad has won six straight, carries direct playoff-implications for both SEC contenders.
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