Trump's instinct-driven Iran war stalls as Tehran holds
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- Trump and Netanyahu launched joint US-Israeli airstrikes on Iran on 28 February, killing Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on the first strike, yet the Iranian regime is still standing and fighting back a month later.
- The US-Israeli bombing campaign has killed 1,464 Iranian civilians according to HRANA, a US-based human rights monitoring group, but no popular uprising has followed.
- Iran has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz using cheap drones launched from its mountainous interior, cutting off roughly 20% of world oil supplies and sending global financial markets into a spin.
- Trump told Fox News Radio 13 days into the war that he did not think it "would be long" and that it would end "when I feel it, feel it in my bones" — relying on gut instinct rather than strategic planning.
- Netanyahu, Israel's longest-serving prime minister, declared the war's goal on day one was to "smite the terror regime hip and thigh" — a clarity of war aims Bowen says has eluded Trump.
- Houthis in Yemen fired a barrage of missiles at Israel on Friday for the first time since the war began, and could resume Red Sea shipping attacks that would cut off the Suez Canal route from Asia to Europe.
- The Iranian regime, built on institutions forged in the 1979 revolution and the eight-year Iran-Iraq war, is showing that killing leaders is not a death sentence for the system itself.
Why it matters: Trump's instinct-based war plan has produced a strategic stalemate with real economic costs: Iran survives the loss of its supreme leader, and the Strait of Hormuz closure has already choked off roughly 20% of world oil supplies. With the Houthis now re-entering the fight, Trump's stark choice — declare a hollow victory or escalate — gets harder as the damage to global energy markets widens.
