Rams vs. 49ers prediction, odds, time: 2026 NFL Australia game picks from proven model — SkimNews
Get the Sports newsletter
Daily sports — scores, transfers, the storylines from the leagues you actually follow. Free.
- Los Angeles Rams and San Francisco 49ers open the 2026 regular season Thursday at Melbourne Cricket Ground (8:35 p.m. ET) as part of the NFL's Australia debut, both coming off 12-5 seasons tied for second in the NFC West.
- Both clubs were eliminated by the eventual champion Seattle Seahawks last postseason — the Rams 31-27 in the NFC Championship Game and the 49ers 41-6 in the divisional round.
- The Rams are listed as 3.5-point favorites with a 48.5 over/under, and defensive star Aaron Donald will not play this week as he continues conditioning after a two-year retirement.
- SportsLine's projection model — which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times and is 53-37 on top-rated picks since 2024 — projects 49 combined points and backs the Over 48.5 on the total.
- The model projects Matthew Stafford to throw for 235-plus yards and two touchdowns, while Brock Purdy is projected for 220-plus yards and one score.
- Separately, the model says one side of the point spread covers in nearly 60% of its 10,000 simulations of the matchup.
Why it matters: Both the Rams and 49ers finished 12-5 in 2025 and were bounced by the champion Seahawks in the playoffs, turning this Melbourne opener into an early measuring stick between two NFC West contenders. With Aaron Donald sidelined and Los Angeles favored by just 3.5, the model's near-60% spread hit rate offers bettors a rare data-backed edge in Week 1.
Ask SkimNews
