2026 Week 1 NFL score predictions, game picks: Model releases exact projections from 10,000 simulations — SkimNews
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- SportsLine's model simulated all 2026 Week 1 NFL games 10,000 times and released exact score projections, entering the new season on a 53-37 run on top-rated picks dating back to 2024 and ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years.
- The model projects the Philadelphia Eagles (-5.5) to beat the Washington Commanders 27-18 at home, with Jalen Hurts projected for 213 passing yards and 1.79 touchdowns while Saquon Barkley is projected to rush for nearly 100 yards and one score.
- Jayden Daniels is projected to throw for over 175 yards with one touchdown for Washington, with running back Jacory Croskey-Merritt projected for roughly 50 rushing yards against an Eagles team that has taken seven of the last 10 meetings in the series.
- The Los Angeles Rams are 3.5-point favorites over the San Francisco 49ers in Melbourne, Australia on Sept. 10, opening the 2026 NFL season after an offseason that brought Myles Garrett (2025 Defensive Player of the Year with a 23-sack season) to Los Angeles alongside the return of Aaron Donald.
- Other notable Week 1 spreads listed include Patriots-Seahawks (-3.5, total 44.5), Bills-Texans (+1.5, 44.5), and Cowboys-Giants (+2.5, 48.5), with the model calling for an underdog upset in one of the marquee matchups.
Why it matters: The model has returned well over $7,000 for $100 players since inception and topped 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times in six years, so its Week 1 exact-score calls give bettors a quantified edge to weigh against spreads like the Eagles' 5.5-point line or the Cowboys' 2.5-point dog role in their Giants matchup.
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