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Saturday's Ole Miss–Texas game in Austin carries the weight of two faltering campaigns: Arch Manning's Heisman case and the Longhorns' College Football Playoff path, with bettors already piling in behind the Rebels.

What is a key fact in this story? (1)

**Texas** (4-2) is the first team since Michigan State in 1961 to lose consecutive games to unranked opponents after entering the streak at AP No. 1; a third straight loss Saturday against No. 7 Ole Miss would make it only the third school ever to lose three in a row after a No. 1 preseason ranking, cutting its modeled playoff chance from 37.6% to 15.2%.

What is a key fact in this story? (2)

**Arch Manning**'s Heisman odds have collapsed to +30000 — the same price as Northwestern's Aidan Chiles — after two fourth-quarter interceptions in the Oct. 10 loss to Oklahoma and just 173 passing yards plus a late fumble against unranked Florida; NFL scouts no longer see him as a favorite to go No. 1 overall in the 2027 draft (+1100).

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Ole Miss vs. Texas CFB picks, parlay: Longhorns would say goodbye to CFP with third straight loss — SkimNews

By CBS Sports · Summarized & edited by Kapil Samant · 2026-10-23

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Texas (4-2) is the first team since Michigan State in 1961 to lose consecutive games to unranked opponents after entering the streak at AP No. 1; a third straight loss Saturday against No. 7 Ole Miss would make it only the third school ever to lose three in a row after a No. 1 preseason ranking, cutting its modeled playoff chance from 37.6% to 15.2%.
Arch Manning's Heisman odds have collapsed to +30000 — the same price as Northwestern's Aidan Chiles — after two fourth-quarter interceptions in the Oct. 10 loss to Oklahoma and just 173 passing yards plus a late fumble against unranked Florida; NFL scouts no longer see him as a favorite to go No. 1 overall in the 2027 draft (+1100).
Steve Sarkisian, reportedly, gave redshirt freshman KJ Lacey Jr. extra first-team quarterback reps while insisting Manning, previously 11-0 at home, remains the starter; Sarkisian is -300 to still be Texas's coach at the start of next season.
Colin Simmons, who leads the nation with 10.5 sacks and 16.0 tackles for loss, is not expected to play against Ole Miss because of the ankle sprain suffered in the Florida loss.
Trinidad Chambliss has thrown a passing touchdown in 19 straight games and ranks second in the SEC with 20 total touchdowns, while Kewan Lacy powers an Ole Miss offense leading the nation in red-zone touchdown percentage at 87.5%.
Ole Miss (5-1) would tie its 2015 school record with a fourth win over an AP-ranked opponent, and an upset would lift its modeled playoff probability from 28.4% to 55.5%; No. 5 Georgia in Oxford is the only ranked foe remaining.
DraftKings has 68% of the handle and 73% of the bets on Ole Miss against the spread with the 53.5 total split, yet the recommended same-game parlay is Texas moneyline plus alternate under 60.5 at +126 against Ole Miss's 1-10 road record versus ranked SEC teams.

Why it matters: For Texas, a loss cuts the modeled playoff chance from 37.6% to 15.2% and leaves Sarkisian's -300 tenure price exposed, yet 68% of the DraftKings handle already sits on Ole Miss against the spread; Ole Miss's 1-10 road mark against ranked SEC teams is the underplayed counterweight to the 'Longhorns are finished' frame.