10-Year Yield Falls to 5.114% as Fed Decision Looms — SkimNews
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- 10-year Treasury yield fell 2 basis points to 5.114% on Tuesday, while the 30-year Treasury bond yield dropped 2 bps to 5.45%.
- 2-year Treasury note yield held broadly flat at 4.757% as the market weighed the inflationary backdrop ahead of the Fed meeting.
- Investors are awaiting September housing starts, pending home sales, and weekly ADP employment change data due later Tuesday morning.
- Weekly initial jobless claims arrive Thursday and the S&P Global Composite PMI Flash is slated for release on Friday, rounding out a data-heavy week.
- Traders are pricing an 82% probability the Fed holds rates steady at next week's meeting, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
- The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index — the Fed's preferred inflation gauge — is also due ahead of the rate decision.
Why it matters: With traders pricing 82% odds of a Fed hold, the market has largely conceded no rate change next week — so any surprises in housing, jobless claims, or the PCE index could force a repricing of December rate-cut bets, pulling the 10-year yield off its 5.114% mark.
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