Oil prices ease as recovering Hormuz Strait traffic tempers war premium
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- WTI crude for September delivery dropped 1.62% to $82.24, while Brent crude fell 0.98% to $88.16 a barrel on Friday as the Hormuz traffic recovery eased the war premium.
- Commonwealth Bank of Australia estimated Strait of Hormuz traffic has rebounded to 30%-35% of pre-war levels and said a climb to 50%-60% could restore global oversupply conditions.
- US-Iran strikes earlier in the week briefly pushed Brent above $93 a barrel before the traffic recovery took the edge off supply concerns.
- Trump called to add tariffs on Iran to a bipartisan sanctions bill targeting Tehran and Russia, saying the legislation "would make it much stronger."
- The bill would also authorize tariffs on goods from the top five countries that buy Russian energy and help Moscow evade sanctions.
- The US imported just $1.4 million in goods from Iran in 2025, with works of art and antiques comprising 55% of that value — underscoring how little direct trade leverage tariffs on Iran would carry.
Why it matters: The $1.4 million in US imports from Iran — mostly antiques — makes Trump's tariff-on-Iran push largely symbolic, while the bill's real teeth lie in its authority to penalize the top five buyers of Russian energy. On the price side, CBA says a Hormuz rebound past 50% of pre-war flows could restore oversupply and erase the war premium entirely.
