Yankees vs. Red Sox prediction, odds, time: 2026 MLB picks for Sunday Night Baseball from advanced model
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- Boston Red Sox (35-46) have won the first three games of the series, including a 4-1 victory Saturday, and are looking for their first four-game win streak of the season
- New York Yankees (48-34) are trying to avoid their first four-game series sweep of 2026, sending Carlos Rodon (4-2, 3.70 ERA) against Boston's Sonny Gray (9-1, 2.95 ERA)
- The SportsLine model projects Over 8 total runs (8.5 combined), backing the Over going 17-8-1 (68%) in Yankees games when they aren't favorites since 2025 and 4-2 across Boston's last six Sunday games
- Rodon posted a 5.40 ERA across four starts vs Boston last year, while Gray has allowed 9 earned runs over his last 11.1 innings against New York for a 7.15 ERA in that span
- Boston is a -120 favorite in what is the clubs' 2,335th all-time meeting — a rivalry the Yankees lead historically at 54.6% despite Boston controlling this weekend's series
Why it matters: Boston is laying -120 as a favorite despite a 35-46 record, meaning bettors are paying juice to back the worse-on-paper club chasing a sweep. The model's Over 8 lean targets a pitching matchup where both starters have been hit hard recently by this weekend's opponent — Rodon at 5.40 ERA vs Boston last year and Gray at 7.15 ERA vs New York in his last 11.1 innings.
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