SpaceX Reports First Earnings With Stock Down 30% From IPO — SkimNews
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- SpaceX reports Q2 results Tuesday after the bell — its first earnings as a public company — with shares down ~30% from its $150 IPO debut last month and ~50% from its $225.64 all-time high
- SpaceX's Aug. 6 lockup expiration will free hundreds of millions of insider shares — roughly triple the current tradable float and up to 20% of total shares, per Epistrophy Capital's Cory Johnson
- Bloomberg consensus projects SpaceX Q2 revenue of $6.81 billion (up sequentially from $4.7 billion in Q1), an adjusted loss per share of $0.24, and adjusted EBITDA of $2.0 billion
- S&P Global Visible Alpha's Melissa Otto forecasts SpaceX capex surging from $48.7 billion this year to $118.4 billion by FY2028, with debt projected to grow over 5x from $41.7 billion to $218 billion
- SpaceX is targeting the first-ever tower catch of a Starship upper stage on Flight 14, with Deutsche Bank analyst Edison Yu estimating a late August or September launch window from Starbase
- Elon Musk is reportedly still pushing a SpaceX-Tesla merger; the Wall Street Journal reported Friday that Tesla executives are weighing how to divest Tesla's China business to clear the path
Why it matters: SpaceX's $48.7 billion-to-$118.4 billion capex trajectory and 5x projected debt growth through FY2028 reframes tonight's report: investors are pricing not just the expected $0.24 adjusted loss but whether AI infrastructure and Starship spending will deliver returns to justify a stock that IPO'd at $150 — all while a lockup expiration two days later floods the market with insider shares equal to triple the current float.
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