SpaceX First Earnings Loom as Stock Hits All-Time Low
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- SpaceX (SPCX) reports Q2 results Tuesday afternoon — its first earnings release as a publicly traded company — coming as the stock hit a new all-time low Monday morning.
- SPCX has shed roughly 30% from its $150 market debut and remains down about 50% from its $225.64 all-time high, per Yahoo Finance data.
- An Aug. 6 lockup expiration will unlock up to 20% of shares — hundreds of millions of insider shares roughly triple the current tradable float, per Epistrophy Capital's Cory Johnson.
- Bloomberg consensus expects SpaceX to post Q2 revenue of $6.87 billion (up from $4.7 billion in Q1), an adjusted loss per share of $0.25, and adjusted EBITDA of $2.03 billion.
- S&P Global Visible Alpha's Melissa Otto projects SpaceX capex ballooning from $48.7 billion this year to $118.4 billion in FY 2028, with debt growing more than 5x from $41.7 billion to over $218 billion.
- SpaceX is targeting late August or September for Starship Flight 14, with CEO Elon Musk saying the company will attempt the first-ever tower catch of a Starship upper stage using the Mechazilla arms at Starbase.
- The Wall Street Journal reported Friday that Tesla executives are weighing a sale of the automaker's China business to clear the way for Musk's ongoing push to merge SpaceX with Tesla, a deal complicated by SpaceX's government and defense contracts.
Why it matters: The Aug. 6 lockup triples the tradable float, so even a Q2 revenue beat versus the $6.87 billion consensus may not insulate SPCX from insider supply. Longer-term, Otto's projection of capex quintupling to $118.4 billion and debt ballooning to $218 billion by FY 2028 forces investors to underwrite Starship reusability and Starlink V3 deployment before the unresolved Tesla merger question can change the equity story.
