Scheffler Tops 2026 U.S. Open Odds; Model Fades Koepka
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- Scottie Scheffler (+550) tops the 2026 U.S. Open odds and would become the seventh man in the modern era to complete the Career Grand Slam with a win; his best U.S. Open finish was runner-up in 2022, with four top-7s in his last five starts at the major.
- Rory McIlroy (+1200) sits second on the board and is seeking a second U.S. Open title 15 years after his 2011 win; the 2018 Shinnecock U.S. Open was his last missed cut at this major, and he ranks top 5 in SG: total, SG: tee-to-green, and SG: off-the-tee but 125th in driving accuracy — a concern given the course's 5-inch rough.
- Shinnecock Hills Golf Club hosts the 2026 U.S. Open beginning Thursday, June 18 — the sixth time the Long Island course has hosted the major, with Brooks Koepka the last winner there in 2018.
- SportsLine's model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has nailed 17 majors including the 2026 Masters (its fifth straight) and the 2025 PGA Championship and Open Championship, simulating every PGA Tour event 10,000 times.
- Brooks Koepka (+3500) is projected by the model to stumble and miss the top 25 despite his 2018 Shinnecock win; he has zero top-10s in his last 12 major starts, with seven finishes outside the top 40, and ranks outside the top 100 on tour in both driving accuracy and SG: putting.
- Scheffler's 2026 form has cooled compared to his six-plus-win seasons in 2024 and 2025, with just one victory this year, though half of his 12 events have produced top-3 finishes; he has never competed at Shinnecock.
Why it matters: For bettors, the model's contrarian fade of Koepka — a two-time U.S. Open winner with direct course history — at a venue he's already conquered is the most actionable data point, and it highlights how a 17-major-tracked model weighs recent form (zero top-10s in 12 majors) more heavily than past venue success. The model also flags McIlroy's 125th-ranked driving accuracy as the swing factor on a course whose wide fairways are punished by 5-inch rough.
