2026 U.S. Open odds, picks: Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy predictions by model that nailed 17 majors
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- Shinnecock Hills hosts the 2026 U.S. Open starting June 18, marking the Long Island course's sixth time staging the major and its first since Brooks Koepka's 2018 victory.
- Scottie Scheffler tops the odds board at +550, seeking to become the seventh man in the modern era to complete the Career Grand Slam; he has finished top-7 in four of his last five U.S. Open starts but has never played Shinnecock.
- Rory McIlroy sits at +1200, the only other golfer shorter than +1300, with the U.S. Open statistically his weakest major (5 missed cuts, tied for fewest top-5s at 4) and a missed cut at Shinnecock in 2018 on his record.
- SportsLine's model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure and credited with nailing 17 majors including five straight Masters, ran 10,000 simulations and projects Brooks Koepka (+2500) to miss the top 25 — citing Koepka's zero top-10s in his last 12 major starts and rankings outside the top 100 in driving accuracy and SG: putting.
- A dozen past U.S. Open champions are in the 2026 field, including Koepka, Bryson DeChambeau, Jon Rahm (+1300), Matt Fitzpatrick, and McIlroy, with Cameron Young and Ludvig Åberg tied at +2200 just behind the top tier.
- The model is also targeting longshots at over 30-1, though those specific picks are locked behind SportsLine's paywall.
Why it matters: The model's track record of 17 major wins — including a fifth straight Masters in 2026 — gives its fade of Koepka, the defending Shinnecock champion, and its bullishness on a longshot field real weight for bettors sizing up the board, particularly with Scheffler carrying just one 2026 win into a course he's never played.
