Model Picks Over 8 in Cardinals-Tigers Sunday Night Baseball
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- SportsLine's Projection Model simulated Cardinals vs. Tigers 10,000 times and is picking Over 8 total runs, projecting 9.0 combined runs for the Sunday Night Baseball finale at Comerica Park (7:20 p.m. ET).
- The Detroit Tigers have won the first two games of the three-game set — a 4-0 shutout on Friday and an 11-6 victory on Saturday — and are listed as -143 moneyline favorites with both teams sitting at 4-4 on the young season.
- Cardinals starter Kyle Leahy (0-1, 7.20 ERA) struggled in his season debut, allowing 10 baserunners over 5 innings and surrendering 4 earned runs, fueling the model's offensive projection.
- Keider Montero makes his season debut for Detroit after going 5-3 with a 4.37 ERA in 2025; he was recalled from the minors this weekend after Justin Verlander (hip) landed on the injured list, and posted a 9.00 Spring Training ERA.
- The over has hit in 7 of the last 11 Cardinals-Tigers meetings, including Saturday's 17-run outburst, and the model cites Montero's prior poor outing against St. Louis (5 ER, 8 hits) as further support for the Over.
- The SportsLine model went 35-29 on top-rated MLB money-line picks last season and returned nearly 30 units of profit on home run prop picks in 2025.
Why it matters: For bettors sizing up Sunday Night Baseball, the model is fading two struggling starters — a 0-1 pitcher with a 7.20 ERA and a recalled arm with a 9.00 spring ERA — and backing the Over 8 at -110 implied odds, a pick aligned with the 7-of-11 recent head-to-head trend of overs hitting in this matchup.
