US Intel: Only One-Third of Iran's Missiles Destroyed
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- US intelligence can only confirm that about a third of Iran's missile arsenal has been destroyed after nearly a month of US-Israeli strikes, with the status of another third unclear but likely damaged or buried in underground tunnels, according to five people familiar with the intelligence.
- Trump publicly claimed Thursday that Iran had 'very few rockets left,' a sharp contrast with the intelligence showing Iran retains a significant missile inventory and may be able to recover buried or damaged weapons once fighting stops.
- Iran fired 15 ballistic missiles and 11 drones at the UAE on Thursday alone according to the UAE Defense Ministry, and last week fired long-range missiles at the US-UK Diego Garcia base in the Indian Ocean for the first time.
- US Central Command reports strikes have hit more than 10,000 Iranian military targets as of March 25, sinking 92% of the Iranian navy's large vessels, but has declined to specify what percentage of missile or drone capability has been destroyed.
- Expert Nicole Grajewski of Sciences Po estimated Iran still retains roughly 30% of its missile capabilities, noting that Iran has more than a dozen large underground facilities where it has been able to keep launchers and missiles.
- Rep. Seth Moulton (D-MA), a Marine Corps veteran, disputed Trump's claims, saying 'if Iran is smart they've retained some of their capability — they're not using everything that they have. And they're laying in wait.'
- Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth acknowledged on March 19 the challenge posed by Iran's tunnel networks, comparing them to Hamas tunnels in Gaza, but provided no specifics on the percentage of missiles or drones destroyed.
Why it matters: The gap between Trump's 'very few rockets left' rhetoric and the intelligence that two-thirds of Iran's arsenal remains intact has direct stakes for escalation decisions: Trump himself cited the 1% missile risk to billion-dollar ships as reason for caution about the Strait of Hormuz, yet the actual residual threat appears far larger than that framing implies. The credibility of administration war messaging now conflicts with what its own intelligence shows as Iran continues daily strikes on Gulf neighbors.
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