The divide between Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk is widening after their latest earnings
Get the Finance newsletter
Daily finance — markets, central banks, M&A, the prints that move money. Free.
- Eli Lilly posted Q2 revenue up 48% year-over-year on demand for Mounjaro and Zepbound, raised full-year guidance, and now holds 60.9% of the U.S. obesity and diabetes drug market versus Novo Nordisk's 38.8%
- Novo Nordisk beat Q2 estimates and raised guidance Tuesday, but its Wegovy pill revenue came in slightly below analyst expectations even though the drug has reached more than 5 million patients since its January U.S. launch
- Novo Nordisk's updated full-year outlook implies the company could post a sales decline this year, a stark contrast to Lilly's expectation of continuing revenue growth
- Novo Nordisk's experimental obesity drug CagriSema failed to match Zepbound on blood sugar control in a large trial — the second such miss this year — while its late-stage cardiovascular drug ziltivekimab also failed to reduce major cardiovascular events versus placebo
- The Wegovy pill, which has shown higher efficacy than Lilly's rival oral obesity treatment, will launch in Germany in September as the product's first entry into a European Union country
- Wall Street analysts framed Novo as in a "show-me phase," with Citi calling the results "nothing to inspire" and BMO's Evan Seigerman saying the pill miss highlights a "broader need for further pipeline diversification"
Why it matters: Lilly now controls 60.9% of the U.S. obesity/diabetes market versus Novo's 38.8%, and the gap is widening as Novo's 2025 outlook implies a possible sales decline against Lilly's continued revenue growth. With CagriSema and ziltivekimab both flunking trials in one week, Novo's case for long-term growth is eroding.
