Week 9 NFL odds, picks, predictions: Computer model backs Chiefs and Commanders — SkimNews
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- SportsLine says its advanced computer model simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, entered Week 9 of the 2026 season on a 60-51 run of top-rated picks dating to 2024, and has returned more than $5,000 to $100 players since inception.
- Commanders are listed at +4.5 with a 47.5 total and are backed to cover the Rams in more than 50% of the model’s simulations; Washington is 3-1 ATS in games Jayden Daniels started and finished, leads the NFL in turnover differential at plus-seven, and averages over 140 rushing yards in those starts.
- Rams are 1-3 against the spread over their last four games in the Eastern Time Zone and were gashed for 234 rushing yards by Josh Allen and the Bills in a Week 5 loss.
- Chiefs are backed at -8.5, with a 48 total, to cover against the Jets in more than 50% of simulations; Kansas City is 4-1 ATS over its last five games as a favorite of more than a touchdown, while the Jets are 2-4 ATS over their last six as underdogs of more than a touchdown.
- Geno Smith is projected to fall short of 200 passing yards against Kansas City’s No. 5 scoring defense, which faces the Jets’ No. 25 scoring offense; the model also projects New York at 3.8 yards per carry.
- Drew Lock fills in at quarterback for Seattle in place of injured Sam Darnold, while Gardner Minshew replaces Jacoby Brissett for the Raiders after Brissett was traded to the Ravens, producing two new NFC West starters.
- Bengals face the Falcons in Madrid with Cincinnati favored by three points after Atlanta became the season’s first shutout team in a 16-0 Sunday loss to Tampa; the Bills-Vikings, Patriots-Packers and Broncos-Panthers cross-conference games carry listed +3, +3 and +2.5 lines.
Why it matters: For bettors, the model frames two spreads: Washington gets a +4.5 cushion against a Rams team 1-3 ATS in four Eastern games, while Kansas City is 4-1 ATS in its last five games as a touchdown-or-more favorite. SportsLine’s claimed 60-51 top-rated record and $5,000-plus return on $100 stakes give bettors a performance check on the quoted picks.
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