Week 9 NFL odds, picks, predictions: Computer model backs Chiefs and Commanders — SkimNews
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- SportsLine entered Week 9 of the 2026 NFL season on a 60-51 run on top-rated picks dating back to 2024, with the model simulating every game 10,000 times and its top-rated selections returning more than $5,000 for $100 players on betting sites.
- Kansas City Chiefs are a 10-point favorite over the Jets at 1 p.m. ET, with the model backing the cover in more than 50% of simulations and the Over hitting nearly 60%; the Chiefs are 4-1 ATS over their last five games as favorites of more than a touchdown.
- Washington Commanders are favored by 5.5 points with a 47.5 total against the Rams at home, a cover the model gives them almost 60% of the time, backed by a 3-1 ATS mark in Jayden Daniels' starts and a plus-seven turnover differential that tops the NFL.
- Los Angeles Rams were gashed for 234 yards on the ground by Buffalo in a Week 5 loss and are 1-3 against the spread over their last four games in the Eastern Time Zone, with the Washington game projected to be decided by less than a field goal.
- New York Jets are 2-4 ATS over their last six games as underdogs of more than a touchdown, and the model projects Geno Smith failing to reach 200 yards through the air with the offense held to about 3.8 yards per carry against Kansas City's No. 5 scoring defense and the NFL's No. 25 scoring offense.
- Cincinnati Bengals meet the Atlanta Falcons in Madrid with Cincinnati favored by 3 points, after Atlanta was shut out 16-0 by Tampa Bay in the first shutout of the season.
- NFL Week 9 spreads mix three cross-conference games the source flags as potential Super Bowl previews — Bills-Vikings (+3.5), Patriots-Packers (+3) and Broncos-Panthers (+2.5) — with three lines of at least a touchdown: Chiefs-Jets (+10), 49ers-Raiders (+10) and Seahawks-Cardinals (+8.5).
Why it matters: The two marquee Week 9 edges sit at opposite ends of the spread board: Kansas City laying 10 points to a Jets team 2-4 against the spread as double-digit dogs, and Washington taking 5.5 at home in a game the model projects inside a field goal. Each rides on a 60-51 top-rated record and a $5,000 return for $100 players.
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