Week 9 NFL odds, picks, predictions: Computer model backs Chiefs and Commanders — SkimNews
Get the Sports newsletter
Daily sports — scores, transfers, the storylines from the leagues you actually follow. Free.
- SportsLine simulates every NFL game 10,000 times; entering Week 9 of the 2026 season, its top-rated picks were 60-51 dating to 2024 and up more than $5,000 for $100 players.
- Commanders draw a nearly 60% simulation projection to cover +5.5 at home against the Rams; Washington is 3-1 ATS in Jayden Daniels starts, averages over 140 rushing yards in those games and leads the NFL at plus-seven turnover differential, while the Rams allowed 234 rushing yards to Josh Allen’s Bills in Week 5.
- Chiefs are forecast to cover -9.5 against the Jets in more than 50% of simulations, with the Over nearly 60%; Kansas City is 4-1 ATS over its last five games as touchdown favorites, and the Jets are 2-4 over their last six when underdogs of more than a touchdown.
- NFL Week 9 features cross-conference matchups such as Bills-Vikings at +3.5, Patriots-Packers at +3 and Broncos-Panthers at +3, alongside touchdown-sized spreads for 49ers-Raiders at +10 and Seahawks-Cardinals at +10.5.
- Madrid hosts Bengals-Falcons with Cincinnati favored by 3.5 points, after Atlanta became the first team shut out this season in a 16-0 Sunday loss to Tampa.
- SportsLine says the model made four A-rated spread picks for the Week 9 slate, but only the Commanders and Chiefs calls receive visible simulation percentages; the complete set of picks is routed to SportsLine.
Why it matters: For bettors, the model’s 60-51 top-rated record and $5,000-plus return history give the Week 9 calls measurable support. Washington’s +5.5 pick covers on a win or a loss by five or fewer, while Kansas City’s -9.5 requires a 10-point win against the Jets’ No. 25-scoring offense.
Ask SkimNews
