U.S. midterms — Donald Trump’s test, India’s stakes — SkimNews
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- US 2026 midterms on November 3 will fill all 435 House seats and 35 of 100 Senate seats; the Cook Political Report projects Democrats gaining 5-15 House seats and leads narrowly in Texas, Iowa and Michigan Senate races, while Republicans hold a 53-seat Senate majority Democrats need a net four to flip.
- Donald Trump's approval sits at roughly 30% with registered voters favoring Democrats for Congress by about eight points; his party held its first-ever midterm convention in Dallas and he is on a rally tour of at least 17 states, telling supporters to "pretend I'm on the ballot."
- Vivek Ramaswamy trails Democrat Amy Acton by six to nine points in the Ohio governor's race amid open hostility toward his Indian heritage and Hindu faith from a primary rival and online, part of a wider rise in anti-Indian rhetoric on the American right since the H-1B debate.
- Indian trade and visa exposure includes US tariffs that rose to 50% in 2025 before a February framework cut them to 18% (interim deal still unsigned), Trump's September 18 law permitting up to 100% tariffs on the largest Russian-energy buyers including India (58 House Democrats voted for it), and a $100,000 fee on new H-1B visas.
- Takshashila Institution researchers concluded after 42 Washington interviews that congressional support for India is "wide but shallow," with smaller but more motivated blocs opposing cheap imports, skilled migration and Russian oil money outweighing larger pro-India majorities.
- Five campaign issues dominate the cycle: cost of living pushed up by tariffs, the unpopular US-Israel war with Iran launched in late February 2026 that has raised fuel costs, immigration raids that cost Republicans their old advantage, unpopular Medicaid cuts, and crime — the GOP's strongest card.
- Election-integrity fights shadow voting day: Trump has pushed proof-of-citizenship registration, pressed Republican states to redraw congressional maps mid-decade, and called for Republicans to "take over" voting in some places, while not ruling out immigration agents or National Guard at polling stations.
Why it matters: Neither a Democratic nor a Republican Congress is likely to reverse the 50%-to-18% tariff trajectory or the new 100%-tariff law on Russian-energy buyers — both passed with bipartisan buy-in. The Takshashila study finds India's congressional backing is "wide but shallow," meaning India gains or loses at the White House level, not on Capitol Hill: a weakened Trump may pursue a trade deal or fresh pressure, but student, worker and energy costs are decided unilaterally by the administration.
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