Barnwell Mocks 32 First-Round NFL Draft Trades
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- Bill Barnwell published his annual all-trades mock draft, projecting a trade scenario for each of the 32 first-round picks, with each deal existing in its own hypothetical universe to avoid contradictions.
- In the No. 1 scenario, the Las Vegas Raiders trade the top pick to the New York Jets for picks 1-2, 2-33, and 4-103, enabling Las Vegas to draft Alabama QB Ty Simpson while the Jets take Fernando Mendoza.
- The Jets then deal No. 2 to the Tennessee Titans for 1-4, 3-66, and a 2027 fourth-round pick, with Barnwell projecting Tennessee would target Texas Tech edge rusher David Bailey, whom he called potentially the most athletic edge rusher the Titans have drafted since Jevon Kearse.
- The Arizona Cardinals trade No. 3 to the Washington Commanders for No. 7 and a 2027 second-round pick, with Barnwell writing that Washington general manager Adam Peters has spent the offseason rebuilding a 'breathtakingly dismal' defense while also needing a playmaker for QB Jayden Daniels.
- Five teams without first-round picks — the Falcons, Colts, Packers, Jaguars, and Broncos — do not appear in any trade scenario, while those same five franchises collectively hold 10 of the 32 first-round selections.
- Barnwell cites his prior-year mock as 'directionally accurate,' having projected a three-way Micah Parsons trade from the Cowboys to the Falcons in which Dallas received two first-round picks — a structure that effectively played out.
- Barnwell challenges conventional draft wisdom, writing that teams no longer discount future first-rounders by a full round in the opening round, and he applies only a 'mild discount' when pricing trades throughout the exercise.
Why it matters: Barnwell flags a thin 2026 trade-up market, meaning teams may need to give up far less draft capital to move around the first round than in past years. He also notes teams no longer discount future first-rounders by a full round, reshaping the trade-value calculus for any team weighing a move on draft night.
