Barnwell predicts the NFL playoffs: Eight returning teams, six newcomers and a SB pick — SkimNews
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- Bill Barnwell projects 14 teams for the 2026 NFL playoffs, deliberately picking 8 returnees and 6 newcomers rather than defaulting to 9-plus returnees, citing historical data that only about 56% of playoff teams return the following year.
- Seattle Seahawks picked to repeat as NFC West champions despite the Rams loading up with Myles Garrett, Aaron Donald, Trent McDuffie, and Jaylen Watson, after going 14-3 and leading the league in DVOA last season.
- Philadelphia Eagles projected to win the NFC East for a third straight year—becoming the first back-to-back division champs in more than two decades—with Lane Johnson back from injury and new additions Riq Woolen and Jonathan Greenard on a young defense.
- New England Patriots picked to hold the AFC East with roughly 11 wins despite a tougher schedule, ranked the league's 11th-easiest slate per ESPN's Football Power Index.
- Pittsburgh Steelers projected as an AFC wild card under new head coach Mike McCarthy, who replaces the departed Mike Tomlin, with Aaron Rodgers expected to play his final pro season and the team facing the eighth-easiest schedule in the league.
- The 2025 season saw only one of eight reigning division champions hold their title—the Eagles—with the Chiefs, Ravens, Lions, and Buccaneers all missing the postseason outright, informing Barnwell's expectation that three reigning division winners will fall out in 2026.
Why it matters: Barnwell's methodology forces a counterintuitive constraint: exactly 8 returnees and 6 newcomers, mirroring the historical 56% playoff return rate rather than gut instinct. The constraint drives notable calls against the grain—only 5 of 8 reigning division winners make his 2026 field, and Seattle holds off the star-laden Rams in the NFC West despite Los Angeles's blockbuster offseason.
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