Barnwell: Five NFL teams -- including the Broncos -- that will take a step back this season
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- Bill Barnwell published his annual decline column flagging five NFL teams expected to win fewer games in 2026; since 2017 the column is 34-9 at picking teams that fall short of their prior win total
- The Bears lead the list after going 11-6 in 2025 with a league-best +22 turnover margin, including a league-low 11 giveaways and a league-high 66.7% opponent fumble recovery rate
- Since 1990, 23 teams posted a 65%+ fumble recovery rate and went 0-for-23 replicating it the next season, collectively falling to 49.3%
- Of 22 teams since 1990 that posted a +20 turnover margin, 20 of the 21 non-Bears squads won fewer games the following year, with their margin shrinking by more than 19 takeaways on average
- Bears HC Ben Johnson publicly called Chicago the 'No. 1 regression candidate' for 2026 while arguing the roster can defy the odds
- The Bears went 7-4 in one-score games in 2025 after going 3-7 in 2024, with multiple late wins aided by blocked kicks, recovered onside kicks, fourth-quarter fumble recoveries and a 56-yard kickoff return
- Barnwell's 2025 decline column correctly picked four of five teams (Vikings, Commanders, Lions, Chiefs); the miss was the Colts, who lost Daniel Jones to a torn Achilles and collapsed from 8-2 to 8-9
Why it matters: The Bears' +22 turnover margin is historically unsustainable — 20 of the prior 21 teams to post a +20 margin declined the next season, with the typical margin shrinking by more than 19 takeaways. Johnson's own concession that Chicago is the top regression candidate is rare candor from a head coach, and Barnwell's 34-9 track record on decline picks since 2017 gives the projection real weight as Bears fans process a likely step back.
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