The five NFL teams most likely to improve: Why the Chiefs lead Barnwell's annual list
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- Kansas City Chiefs fell from 15-2 to 6-11 in 2025, but the collapse was driven by the largest one-score reversal in NFL history (10-0 in 2024 to 1-9 in 2025) rather than a sharp talent drop.
- Patrick Mahomes tore his left ACL during the 2025 season, yet the Chiefs still posted a +34 point differential and ranked 8th in DVOA through his Week 15 injury.
- Chiefs' secondary was gutted by the Trent McDuffie trade to the Rams, Jaylen Watson's free-agent deal with the Rams, and Bryan Cook's departure to the Bengals, though they used a top-10 pick on cornerback Mansoor Delane.
- Kenneth Walker III was signed to revive a Chiefs run game that ranked last in explosive play rate over the past two seasons, alongside a front seven deepened by Khyiris Tonga and top picks Peter Woods and R Mason Thomas.
- Detroit Lions (9-8) also made Barnwell's list, with the Baltimore Ravens, New York Giants, and New York Jets rounding out the five teams.
- Bill Barnwell's annual column has gone 35-8 (.813) in correctly picking teams to improve since 2017, with the average pick getting 3½ games better after schedule adjustment.
Why it matters: The Chiefs' nine-win swing was almost entirely a close-game luck reversal — 10-0 to 1-9 in one-score games, an NFL record — while their point differential barely budged (from +59 to +60 per game with Mahomes active). An underlying roster that still ranked 8th in DVOA projects back to the playoffs in 2026 with average luck.
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