U.S. Adds 178K Jobs in March; Hiring Surge Unlikely to Last
Get the Finance newsletter
Daily finance — markets, central banks, M&A, the prints that move money. Free.
- U.S. employers added 178,000 jobs in March, the largest monthly gain in 15 months, with the unemployment rate falling to 4.3% from 4.4% — though 31,000 of those gains came from striking nurses returning to work, per the Labor Department report.
- Economists say the March hiring surge is unlikely to last, warning that uncertainty from the Iran war will make businesses more hesitant to hire and that the effects will likely show up more sharply in the April report.
- The Federal Reserve stopped cutting interest rates in December and is now more worried about inflation, particularly after an oil price spike tied to the Iran conflict — meaning rate cuts are unlikely unless layoffs begin to surge.
- The three-month average shows just 68,000 jobs added per month from January through March, and the economy has alternated between hiring and shedding workers for 11 consecutive months.
- Wage growth slowed to 3.5% year-over-year in March from 3.6%, the smallest yearly increase since 2021, while almost 400,000 people dropped out of the labor force — a shrinking workforce that helped push the unemployment rate down.
- Treasury yields rose after the report, with the 10-year note climbing 4 basis points to 4.35%, as traders bet a stronger labor market would discourage the Fed from cutting rates.
Why it matters: The headline 178,000 masks real weakness: 40% of healthcare's 76,000-job gain was returning nurses, wage growth is at its slowest since 2021, and 400,000 workers exited the labor force. With the Fed prioritizing inflation over employment support and oil prices elevated by the Iran conflict, policymakers have little incentive to cut rates unless layoffs surge — making April's report the first real test of whether this labor market holds.
Ask SkimNews
