Canadian economy adds 75,100 jobs in July, U.S. sheds 23,000 positions
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- Canada added 75,100 net jobs in July, nearly four times the 20,000 economists expected, with the unemployment rate falling to 6.4% from 6.5%—a two-year low
- The United States shed 23,000 net jobs in July, sharply missing the 80,000 gain economists forecast; private payrolls added only 30,000 while government employment fell by 53,000
- The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics revised May and June employment down by a combined 103,000 jobs, deepening the picture of a stalled U.S. labor market
- Ontario led provincial gains with 52,000 jobs added in July despite being hit by U.S. tariffs, trade uncertainty, and rising energy prices
- Canada's economy is tracking annualized growth above 3% in the second quarter, a rebound after stagnation that followed Trump's return to office and his tariff regime
- Canada's public sector lost 27,000 jobs in July—the second consecutive monthly decline and the first year-over-year drop since 2020, partially offsetting private-sector and self-employed gains
- Markets repriced sharply: the Canadian dollar jumped to roughly 72 U.S. cents (a two-month high), the odds of a Fed rate hike by September fell from 60% to about 40%, and BoC swaps priced in a rate increase by January
Why it matters: Strong Canadian data has flipped the BoC rate debate—swaps now price in a hike by January, against Bay Street's expectation that the central bank holds steady given trade uncertainty. The U.S. picture is deteriorating on multiple fronts: a 23,000 July loss, a combined 103,000 downward revision to prior months, and a drop in Fed September hike odds from 60% to 40%.
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