10x Research: Bitcoin Bear Market Bottom in August
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- 10x Research suggested Bitcoin may find a bear market bottom in August, pointing to its monthly relative strength index (RSI) chart.
- Grayscale head of research Zach Pandl said in a July 22 report that Bitcoin may have bottomed earlier than the traditional four-year cycle would suggest, which would place the cycle low in September or October.
- Pandl identified macroeconomic conditions, including Fed policy, as the primary drivers of Bitcoin's price that could determine when it bottoms.
- K33 reported that more than half of Bitcoin's supply was held at a loss earlier in July, calling it another indication that a market bottom was approaching.
- Historical data from K33 shows Bitcoin bottomed within 13 to 31 days of the same supply-at-loss threshold being reached in 2017, 2018, and 2022.
- Swan Bitcoin CEO Cory Klippsten pointed to long-term holders' record balance of 14.7 million BTC as yet another indication Bitcoin was nearing a bottom.
Why it matters: A convergence of independent indicators — supply-at-loss thresholds, record long-term holder balances, and monthly RSI — all point to Bitcoin nearing or already at a bottom. If the floor lands in August rather than the traditional September-October four-year cycle window, traders watching the Fed's July 29 decision could reposition earlier than cycle history suggests.
