ESPN's 15 Week 4 NFL Predictions: Upsets, Sleepers, TD Calls — SkimNews
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- Pamela Maldonado flags Denver (+3 at San Francisco), Atlanta (+2.5 at New Orleans), and Dallas (+3 at Houston) as underdogs to watch, with the Broncos' edge tied to 49ers edge rusher Nick Bosa being out with a calf injury and San Francisco's pressure collapse allowing Jacoby Brissett to extend drives the prior week.
- Bijan Robinson's matchup against a Saints defense that ranks last in success rate defending outside zone — paired with Michael Penix Jr.'s return restoring Drake London — anchors the Falcons upset pick, while Atlanta's 3.1 yards per carry allowed and the loss of Saints LT Kelvin Banks Jr. compound New Orleans's problems.
- Seth Walder projects Jameson Williams for 7 catches, 114 yards, and a touchdown against a Panthers secondary depleted by injuries to Jaycee Horn and Mike Jackson, calling Williams a must-trade target despite zero games over 50 receiving yards so far.
- Trent McDuffie — traded to the Rams — is predicted for 1 reception allowed, 7 yards, and an interception against an Eagles offense missing WR1 DeVonta Smith (hamstring), with McDuffie already posting 0.5 yards allowed per coverage snap and a negative-22% completion percentage over expected.
- Matt Bowen tabs Lamar Jackson as a rushing-TD scorer against the Titans, noting Jackson has just one rushing score through three games despite 5.7 carries per game and a prior attempt inside the 5-yard line, while also picking Parker Washington (30.3% target share) and Tetairoa McMillan to find the end zone.
- Ben Solak predicts the Eagles will block another Rams field goal — invoking Jordan Davis's scoop-and-score from last year's meeting — and that Brian Flores's Vikings will shut out the Dolphins on Flores's second game against his former team since being fired as Miami's head coach.
Why it matters: The predictions double as an injury and matchup report for Week 4: Nick Bosa's calf absence, DeVonta Smith's hamstring, and the Panthers' depleted cornerback room all move point spreads and fantasy start-sit decisions. With Bijan Robinson's outside-zone role, Jameson Williams's hidden open-score metrics, and Trent McDuffie's elite coverage numbers cited as the basis for calls, the piece gives bettors and fantasy players actionable, data-backed angles for the 15-game slate.
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