15 predictions for NFL Week 1: Upset picks, fantasy sleepers, projected stat lines and more — SkimNews
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- Betting analyst Pamela Maldonado picked the Jets (+1.5 at Tennessee) and Broncos (+2.5 at Kansas City) as Week 1 upset winners, citing the Jets' pass-rush additions including No. 2 overall pick David Bailey against Tennessee's 26th-ranked offensive line, and Denver's defense against Patrick Mahomes returning from major knee surgery.
- Analytics writer Seth Walder projected Lions edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson for 2.0 sacks and 7 pressures against the Saints, noting Hutchinson faces tackles Kelvin Banks Jr. or Taliese Fuaga who ranked below average in pass block win rate last season.
- Walder projected Jets WR Adonai Mitchell for 5 receptions, 84 yards, and 1 touchdown, noting Mitchell ranks seventh in ESPN's open score over the past two seasons and faces Titans cornerbacks Alontae Taylor and Cor'Dale Flott who were below average in pre-throw positioning.
- Fantasy writer Eric Moody flagged Dolphins QB Malik Willis (rostered in 22.1% of ESPN leagues) as a sleeper, noting QBs with 16+ starts averaging 5+ rushing attempts per game have historically averaged 21.2 fantasy points per game, and the Raiders allowed 16.0 fantasy PPG to QBs last season.
- Moody also picked Raiders TE Michael Mayer (7.0% rostered) as a sleeper with Brock Bowers sidelined by a meniscus trim, noting Mayer averaged 6.0 targets and 10.9 fantasy points in four games without Bowers last season.
- Analyst Matt Bowen predicted Cowboys TE Jake Ferguson, Bears RB D'Andre Swift, and Eagles WR DeVonta Smith will each score touchdowns, with Smith elevated to the No. 1 receiver role in Philadelphia after A.J. Brown was traded to the Patriots.
- Analyst Ben Solak projected the Jets will record their first interception since the 2025 team became the first in NFL history to go an entire season without one, and predicted the Dolphins will beat the Raiders behind new offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik's scheme.
Why it matters: Fantasy lineups and Week 1 betting markets hinge on these projections. Analysts flagging the Jets' pass rush against rookie QB Cam Ward and Dolphins QB Malik Willis as a dual-threat sleeper give bettors concrete targets. A forecast that the 2025 Jets — the only NFL team to finish with zero interceptions — finally record one would close a bizarre statistical drought.
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