2026 Week 1 NFL score predictions, game picks: Model releases exact projections from 10,000 simulations — SkimNews
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- SportsLine's model simulated every Week 1 NFL game 10,000 times to generate exact score predictions, entering the 2026 season on a 53-37 run on top-rated picks dating back to 2024 and up over $7,000 for $100 players since inception.
- Philadelphia Eagles are the model's top Week 1 pick, projected to beat the Washington Commanders 27-18 as 4.5-point home favorites, with Jalen Hurts projected for 213 passing yards and 1.79 touchdowns.
- Saquon Barkley is projected to rush for nearly 100 yards with one touchdown while DeVonta Smith is expected to catch five passes for roughly 75 yards in the Eagles' Week 1 matchup.
- Washington Commanders QB Jayden Daniels is projected for over 175 passing yards and one touchdown, with running back Jacory Croskey-Merritt projected for nearly 50 rushing yards.
- Los Angeles Rams open as 3.5-point favorites over the San Francisco 49ers in Melbourne, Australia, on Sept. 10, after acquiring Myles Garrett — who broke the single-season sack record with 23 and earned 2025 NFL Defensive Player of the Year — and benefitting from Aaron Donald's return.
- The model also locked in exact score predictions for Patriots-Seahawks (-3.5), Bills-Texans (+1.5), and Cowboys-Giants (+3), and is calling for an underdog upset in Week 1.
Why it matters: With the model on a 53-37 run on top-rated picks since 2024 and up over $7,000 for $100 players, its exact-score projections — including the Eagles-Commanders call and a flagged underdog upset — give bettors a granular, simulation-driven edge ahead of the Sept. 10 opener in Melbourne, Australia.
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