2026 NFL Week 1 Expert Picks Against the Spread, Totals, Props — SkimNews
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- The 2026 NFL season opened with Week 1 ATS spreads headlined by Bills vs. Texans (+1.5), Packers vs. Vikings (-1.5), and Chiefs vs. Broncos (+2.5), with the source noting last year's opening slate saw the Under go 12-4
- Doug 'Prop Bet Guy' Kralstein, 69-47 (+1521) on his last 116 NFL player prop bets, is backing Eagles QB Jalen Hurts Over 6.5 carries (-124) vs. Washington — though Hurts only cleared that line in 9 of 16 starts last season
- Larry Hartstein, on a 27-15 NFL spread-picks run returning nearly $1,035 for $100 bettors, is backing the Vikings (-1.5) over the Packers, citing Minnesota's signing of cover corner James Pierre and Green Bay's slow start without Micah Parsons
- Matt Severance, who has returned $1,437 to $100 players over three NFL seasons, is taking Pittsburgh (-274) on the money line vs. Atlanta — noting the Falcons are without top pass-rushers James Pearce and Jalon Walker and are 0-7-1 all-time on the road at Pittsburgh
- SportsLine employs 40-plus Vegas handicappers, including five on NFL runs returning $800+ for $100 players and two returning more than $1,500, with R.J. White alone posting nearly $1,900 on his past 57 picks
- Week 1 game totals are tightly bunched: Bengals vs. Buccaneers (+3.5, 50.5) is the only game with an O/U above 50, while Jets vs. Titans (-1.5, 38.5) and Jaguars vs. Browns (+8.5, 39.5) are the only ones below 40
Why it matters: SportsLine's documented expert track records — five handicappers on NFL runs returning $800+ for $100 players — give bettors a quantifiable edge in Week 1, when soft opening lines built on limited in-season data create pricing inefficiencies; the Falcons' missing pass-rushers against Aaron Rodgers (seeking a record-tying 13th Week 1 win) exemplifies the matchup-specific factors casual bettors may overlook.
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