Week 1 NFL picks, predictions for Kalshi, Polymarket, Underdog: Patriots-Seahawks, Packers-Vikings markets — SkimNews
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- SportsLine Projection Model has released Week 1 NFL prediction-market picks after simulating every game 10,000 times; the model is up over $7,000 for $100 players since inception and entered Week 1 on a 47-32 run on top-rated picks dating back to 2024
- Seattle Seahawks host the New England Patriots Wednesday at 8:20 p.m. ET in a Super Bowl LX rematch (Seattle won 29-13 last time); the model projects Seattle 28-18, and Kalshi prices the Seahawks at $0.62 per share versus $0.39 for New England
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba led the NFL in receiving yards last season with 119 catches, 1,793 yards, and 10 touchdowns, powering a Seahawks offense that averaged 28.4 points per game (third in the league); defending Super Bowl champions are 16-5 in NFL Kickoff games since 2004
- New England Patriots bolstered their offense with AJ Brown (1,000+ receiving yards and at least seven receiving touchdowns in each of his past four Eagles seasons) and Romeo Doubs (13.2 yards per reception in 2025)
- Chicago Bears, coming off an 11-6 first season under head coach Ben Johnson, visit the Carolina Panthers; Caleb Williams threw for 3,942 yards, 27 touchdowns, and seven interceptions, and the model projects Chicago winning 27-23 on the road (Kalshi: Bears $0.59, Panthers $0.41)
- Minnesota Vikings host the Green Bay Packers Sunday at 4:25 p.m. ET in an NFC North clash; Minnesota signed former No. 1 overall pick Kyler Murray this offseason after a 9-8 season in which the offense averaged just 275 yards per game, and the model projects a 22-20 Vikings win (Kalshi: $0.54 vs. $0.47)
Why it matters: Prediction-market users trading Week 1 event contracts now have a model with a 47-32 track record on top-rated picks anchoring their decisions: the Seahawks ($0.62), Bears ($0.59), and Vikings ($0.54) are all favored, with the Vikings-Packers line the tightest spread in the slate — reflecting genuine uncertainty in a division rivalry where Minnesota has won three of the last four meetings.
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