Cowboys vs. Giants prediction, odds: 2026 NFL Week 1 'Sunday Night Football' picks from proven model — SkimNews
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- Cowboys vs. Giants opens the 2026 NFL season on Sunday Night Football at MetLife Stadium (8:20 p.m. ET), with Dallas installed as a 3-point favorite and the total set at 48.
- John Harbaugh makes his New York Giants head coaching debut after the team finished 4-13 in 2025 and replaced its coaching staff; Dallas went 7-9-1 and is seeking its first playoff berth in three seasons.
- SportsLine's model, which has run 10,000 simulations of the matchup, projects 54 combined points — going Over the 48-point total, with both Dallas and its opponents combining for 49+ points in 13 of 17 games last season.
- Dak Prescott is projected to throw for more than 265 yards and two touchdowns, while Giants quarterback Jaxson Dart is projected for 230+ yards and two scores.
- The model cites major defensive weaknesses: New York allowed 25.8 points per game (28th in the NFL) while Dallas surrendered 30.1 (30th), even as the Cowboys averaged 27.7 points per game offensively (7th).
- SportsLine enters Week 1 on a 53-37 run on top-rated NFL picks dating to 2024 and has returned well over $7,000 for $100 bettors since inception.
Why it matters: Bettors backing the Over 48 have concrete support: both defenses ranked bottom-five in points allowed last season, and the model projects two quarterbacks combining for 700+ passing yards. With Dallas favored by just a field goal, the spread offers thin margin against a Giants team debuting a new coaching staff — meaning the point-total bet carries less variance than picking a side.
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