NFL longshot parlay picks, bets for Week 1, 2026: Get an epic return of more than +10,000,000 — SkimNews
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- SportsLine's computer model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, locked in a six-leg Week 1 longshot parlay paying out $1 million on a $10 wager (more than +10,000,000 return).
- The model enters the 2026 NFL season on a 53-37 run on top-rated picks dating back to 2024 and is up well over $7,000 for $100 players since inception, per the source.
- Cowboys vs. Giants on Sunday Night Football is a featured leg, with the model backing Over 56.5 points on the alternate total at +226; Dallas is on its fourth defensive coordinator in four years after ranking dead last in points allowed in 2025 and second worst in 2024.
- The Giants' new defensive coordinator previously oversaw Tennessee units that ranked 28th and 30th in scoring defense in each of the last two years, reinforcing the shootout case.
- Recent head-to-head history supports the over: 77 total points in the first Cowboys-Giants meeting last year, and the last six meetings in New York averaging 62.2 points with two exceeding 70; SportsLine projects 59 total points.
- A bolder alternative, Over 58.5 points at +298, would bump the six-leg parlay payout to roughly $1.25 million on a $10 bet.
- A standalone-plus option the source highlights is the Texans scoring exactly 23 points against the Bills at +1700, noting Houston has scored exactly 23 in back-to-back games versus Buffalo.
Why it matters: For a $10 bettor, hitting SportsLine's six-leg longshot parlay turns a casual wager into a seven-figure payout, and the Cowboys-Giants over is the leg with the most concrete, source-attested evidence — both teams cycled to new defensive coordinators after bottom-tier scoring defenses in 2025-26, and six straight meetings in New York have averaged 62.2 points.
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